The demographics of Lansing are in real danger of changing significantly.  The mix of high and low incomes in a cross between a traditional rural township and an up and coming Ithaca suburb are in danger of leaning significantly toward the suburb side of the scale.  We may be past the point where anyone can do anything about it.

If the New York State Public Service Commission closes the Cayuga Power Plant property taxes are going to take an immediate upward turn, adding close to $600 to the average property tax bill.  While there are developments in the works that will help fill in that gap in the tax base there isn't close to the volume needed to make up for the power plant's loss.

The recent withdrawal of the sewer project probably didn't help.  Two projects that were pretty firm for the Town Center if sewer passed are now up in the air.  One of those was a market rate senior housing building that would have paid full taxes.  Now there is a very good chance those projects are dead.  Other developments that took a wait and see approach may not happen because sewer didn't happen.  Those that do will be on a less grand scale, meaning less value and less tax revenue.

Meanwhile existing taxpayers are required to fill in the gap.  And that is a problem for a whole segment of Lansing residents who have low or fixed incomes.  There is a real chance that means those people will not be able to stay in the town, and only wealthier people will be able to afford to remain.

Lansing is certainly the next big thing in a county that is among the most economically successful in the state.  The scale of developments that have been proposed for Lansing dwarfs the average building rate to date.  In a town that has seen around 30 new units per year some projects propose hundreds of units that could pop up within the next half dozen years.

Without sewer the town has lost a major tool for controlling where these projects pop up. But more importantly the combination of the decrease in value and possible closing of the power plant in tandem with decreases in state aid to schools, and generally rising costs spell disaster for those on the lower end of the economic scale.

One of the things we hear repeatedly in Lansing is the notion of preserving farm lands, especially for family farmers.  This week I heard of a local farmer selling fields his family has farmed for half a decade to help protect a local business from a larger farm that is interested in putting tons of manure across the street.  The recent reassessment of local farms will also mean onerous tax rises for many local farmers.  All of these things conspire to squeeze all but the most prosperous farmers out of the town.

These things all make the dial on Lansing's resident wealth meter go up.  It may happen anyway, but if the plant closes it's going to happen faster.  Higher taxes may mean plummeting property values.  It will certainly mean that a wealthier demographic will buy a much larger percent of Lansing properties and the less wealthy will be squeezed out.  That will certainly mean a shift in the values and character of the town.

That will be a tragedy, because that character and those values are something just about all of the current residents say they want to stay the same.  One of the most interesting things about the sewer debate was that sewer advocates and opponents alike thought their way was the best way to preserve the character of Lansing.  With the avalanche of economic threats to property owners, preserving what residents hold dear about the town may already be out of Lansing's hands.

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