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This may not be a presidential election year, but it is a big year for what many consider an important election in Lansing.  Six elected positions are up this year, including Town Clerk, Highway Superintendent, one Town Justice position, and two Town Board seats.  And Town Supervisor.

Least controversial, at least at this moment,  are the clerk and justice positions.  Typically the incumbents run unopposed for these positions, and while that isn't set in stone for this year, there is currently no reason to believe it won't be that way again.  With Highway Superintendent Jack French stepping down this year after 38 years in the department, 15 of them as Superintendent, it is not yet known who will run.  Behind the scenes the word is that two potential candidates are exploring the possibility, but only one of them will run.  That leaves the board seats, including that of Supervisor.  And election season starts early on the Republican side with Ed LaVigne and Chris Williams going head to head in the primary.

Ed LaVigne was elected to the Town Board the same year that Kathy Miller was elected Supervisor after serving part of a term as a Town Board member.  At that time three Democrats served on the board with two Republicans.  In 2014 the balance shifted to the Republicans, who now have the three-seat majority.  Over these four years the two sides have locked horns on just about every major issue, frustrating board members and citizens alike, and sidetracking initiatives on both sides.  If you attend all the board meetings a pattern emerges, and it is clear that there are major conflicts, especially between Miller and LaVigne.

On Wednesday LaVigne launched his bid for Supervisor, and Miller said she has not yet decided whether she will run for a second term.  If she does, it will be up to voters to decide which of the conflicting visions for Lansing they want.

But before that happens LaVigne has another challenge.  On Tuesday Chris Williams announced his intention to run for Supervisor as a Republican, which means LaVigne and Williams will face off in a September 10th primary.  Williams said Tuesday that the Town has been aimlessly wandering with no direction, and he wants to define a plan for the town that will put it on a path for the future.

The perception of the so-called 'gridlock' on the board may be LaVigne's Waterloo, while Williams' lack of experience as an elected official and lesser name recognition within the township may be his.  The two are not far apart on the issues, so it may come down to the individuals and how aggressive they are about campaigning.

Whether or not Miller runs the Lansing Democrats will have their own challenges.  Two board seats are up for election this year, Lavigne's and Councilwoman Ruth Hopkins'.  Hopkins also said Wednesday that she has not decided whether she will run again.  At least two and possibly three people have expressed an interest in running.  The Democrats would have to win both council seats plus the Supervisor race to regain their majority.

Former Councilwomen Katrina Binkewicz (D) and Connie Wilcox (R) have both announced they are running.  Both, with town board experience and accomplishments, as well as impressive lists of participation and leadership on a number of official and unofficial town committees under their belts, look like they will be strong candidates.  

In a way it is futile, at this time, to predict who will end up running in the general election, in large part because Republicans collect signatures from registered Republicans to declare their candidacy, while the Democratic candidates are chosen in a caucus typically held in Lansing in August or late July.  The caucus is a cross between a town meeting and a mini-election with candidates speaking directly to the crowd, which then casts its votes.  So we won't really know who is on the Democrat's ticket until the end of summer.

And anything can happen at the caucus.  When Miller was named the Democratic candidate for Supervisor four years ago, it might have been a fair bet that the then incumbent Scott Pinney or former Councilwoman Connie Wilcox would be chosen.  But Miller came to the caucus with the votes and went on to win the general election as well.

Additionally, most candidates run on multiple party lines in the November ballot.  Whether Williams or LaVigne wins the primary, the loser could run in the general election on a different party line on the ballot.

And to stir up the mix even more, a write-in campaign could upset any predictions as to who will win in November.  That is exactly what happened in this April's Village Of Lansing election.  Incumbent Trustee Patricia O'Rourke was travelling half way across the world during the period in which she would have had to collect signatures.  During that time the Community Party put Ronny Hardaway and John Dennis forward as candidates.  It appeared to be a shoe-in with only two candidates for two board seats.  But O'Rourke organized a write-in campaign to regain her seat, and received about 90 votes to Hardaway's 71 and Dennis's 49.  

There are too many uncertainties at this point in time to predict winners, except in the Town Justice and Town Clerk positions, and even those aren't 100% set in stone until the November 3rd votes are all counted.  For now the Republican primary election is the one to watch, and both candidates are out of the gate running.

The Lansing Star interviewed both this week, so you can get an early idea of who they are and what they are all about.  About a month before the primary election we should have a much clearer idea of how the November vote is shaping up, or at least who the candidates will be.  And on January 1st adjustments to the course of Lansing will begin.

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