Archive: Opinions

OK. I'm a news 'junkie'. I say one thing, then turn around and do another. I say I am avoiding the news (no television makes that a bit easier, you would think) for two, maybe three days, then go right back headfirst into listening, groaning, mumbling, shouting at the radio, and, alas, I am back at trying to analyze what I hear, and, just as importantly, fitting it into what I know, what I think I know, and sometimes admitting to not knowing.

So, the president reportedly was in conference with high ranking South Korean officials who had just met with Kim Jong-Un over a four hour boozy dinner in Pyongyang. Along with the President in the Oval Office were the Vice President, the Defense Secretary, the National Security Advisor, the Chief of Staff (note, three generals here) and the Deputy Secretary of State. According to published reports, in quotes, the President interrupted the discussion by saying 'OK, OK, tell them I'll do it', in reference to an offer to meet with Kim. The published report goes on to say that Mr. Trump then said 'Tell him yes.'. Further into this published report (WSJ, 3/10/18), Kim Jong Un told his South Korean visitors, in reference to his missile tests: 'Today, we've decided to stop this.'


So, now, if we can believe what observers have reported, we have two men who have traded insults like 'madman', 'mentally deranged', 'little rocket man', and verbally compared the size of their nuclear 'buttons', now saying they want to meet in an historic confab. Opportunity and peril, indeed, as the Chinese symbol for danger implies.

First, let us take a quick look at what we know of these two countries (the men later, perhaps, with a quick note of my limited experience in the Republic of Korea with the Army years ago.) The two countries have been armed to the teeth since 1953 when an armistice was signed in Panmunjeon. Three long, bloody, vicious inconclusive years of war (with nuclear options discussed by MacArthur and Truman), the US and UN losing tens of thousands of men in the cold wasteland of undeclared war on the Korean peninsula, untold tens of thousands of Korean and Chinese soldiers forever lost in the battle of titans, and more than likely a million plus Korean civilians lost as well (Seoul was overrun four times by the opposing armies in three years).

North Korea has over a million men under arms, thousands of miles of tunnels dug underneath the DMZ of the 38th parallel, constantly on alert and posses an outdated but not obsolete Pandora's box of war equipment including Soviet tanks, ten thousand artillery pieces aimed at Seoul, anti-aircraft and other tools and implements of destruction, facing a Republic of Korea armed force of the same caliber and determination. No peace treaty has ever been signed and the meeting of armistice teams has been high theater for years at the armistice village. The result has been untold thousands of deaths by violations of the truce on and around the DMZ (I was there for a year and over one hundred Koreans and at least three Americans were killed in those violations), and these confrontations are still common along the incredibly defended DMZ at the 38th parallel.

Rapprochement barely gets started (after great hooplah about economic free zones, nuclear development frozen, etc.) when it is inevitably scuttled in battles of words, political scuffles, politics, or military face-off. Both countries, though of the same bloodlines and family ties, are scared to death of each other. North Korea, though frequently starving (reports of its citizens reduced to eating tree bark could very well be true) has now developed a nuclear capability with Iran's, and possibly Russia's, assistance. Whether they can put it atop a missile is open to current questioning. But what is not being questioned is their missile's capability to reach anywhere in the Pacific. They have an ICBM, and it appears to be reliable. But, experts have said that the North's last nuclear test may have partially collapsed the mountain where they were testing. Thus, if they test again it may have to be in the atmosphere, thus opening them to international condemnation, or worse, in their eyes, potential failure and loss of face as the whole world recoils from the test, or its possible failure.

With this new 'toy', Kim can now say to his people that his stance and 'his' weapon and his chest thumping has brought the American president to a 'negotiating' table. A potential photo (and concomitant media circus) with Trump would be a diplomatic and political coup of the first magnitude, one which Kim's father and grandfather could only have dreamed of (wouldn't it be interesting to have any conception of what Truman would be thinking, here...). Since Kim cannot (or need not) test further at this point, he can call it a 'goodwill gesture' (another one, folks). Why not? He has gotten what he needs for now, if this summit actually happens.

Now, to the other chest-thumper-in-chief. Donald Trump will now be crowing that his 'get tough' actions have brought Pyongyang to the table. In otherwords, they cried 'Uncle', according to the White House. He may very well be right, considering the economics of North Korea in dire straits. As well, you might cite (here goes the history repetition again) recent Presidential precedents. Many said in 1972 that 'only Nixon could go to Beijing', and they were right: the ultimate 'commie basher' (you should look up and read some of the descriptions of his Congressional races and pronouncements during the Red scare of the late 40's and early 50's). Only Nixon could now talk on equal terms with Chou enLai and Mao. But it must be pointed out that this took a lot of preparation (note: Henry Kissinger et al) and was not done in a vacuum (VietNam was still going on), or worse, on the fly.

Case history Number Two: Ronald Reagan's 'evil empire' and what many considered 'Reagan's War' (including me as an admirer): Communist domination and military hegemony in Eastern Bloc countries. After years of pointing out (oh how history repeats itself...) the Soviet interference in so many areas of the world including Afghanistan, Iran, East Europe, Reagan could then face Gorbachev in Iceland in 1986 and from a position of relative and perceived strength (surprising many of his staff and critics) negotiate a strategic arms treaty which proposed to reduce the number of nuclear arms held by both countries. Mission Impossible. But, again, note, not on the fly and with much attention to detail, not by interrupting staff and experts and saying 'Let's do it...'.

It should also be noted that our historic precedents also did not deal with the current impediments and handicaps of the current administration: no South Korean ambassador, no State Department expert on North Korea, no State Department Assistant Secretary for Far Eastern Affairs. Call it flying blind (though the President implies he doesn't need the same old experts), but it would seem that we need a few diplomats and experts to defuse calling another head of state a 'little rocket man'. We can't ignore the economic sanctions, which may or may not work, depending on your definition of 'work'. Oh, and the Commander-in-Chief's principal advisor is the former CEO of Exxon. Don't get me wrong, Exxon sells great gasoline (you may chuckle here), and Tillerson is viewed as a genius in the board room, but this ain't an off-shore drilling deal. This could be for all the marbles. I'm not sure I would even trust the Dalai Lama and Mother Theresa on this one.

Now, I could be positive, in a way, about this whole thing. Trump is right about one thing: nothing else has 'worked' since 1953, and we just can't continue with the status quo, nuclear-ly speaking. Kim cannot and will not put the nuclear genie back in the bottle, as he needs it to keep North Korea's paranoia in check. And we cannot keep the lid on this powderkeg forever with the 'Bomb' now in the deck of cards that have been dealt. But we cannot make decisions on these issues unilaterally: let's remember, we have no peace treaty, and that must come first, especially considering we actually don't speak for anyone else but our own limited interests halfway across the world.

A peace treaty, should one eventually be discussed, implies that either we accept the eternal division of the peninsula, or we work toward unification. That implies: 1) South Korea be a full and unlimited partner in all of these talks (gee, remember South VietNam as a 'full' partner? You can bet South Korea does...). 2) That South Korea is amenable to reunification (recent polls indicate, surprisingly, that younger South Koreans do NOT want reunification) 3) That North Korea will open itself to the world, its freedoms and typical troubles which accompany human rights, after seventy years of dictatorial submission and isolation. Don't hold your collective breath. 4) That North Korea will give up its nuclear program if the US/UN pulls out of South Korea (Let's ask the South Koreans and the Japanese how they feel about that). Geopolitically (and I haven't even mentioned the 800 pound gorilla in the room, China), the best we can hope for is more sports and Olympic cooperation (remember ping pong diplomacy?) a reopening of the border/DMZ for family reunions, and perhaps more diplomatic missions to reduce tensions.

But, I can say one thing: Both of the chest-thumpers-in-chief feel they have bloodied the others' nose and they are walking into the room (Panmunjeon?? Beijing?) stronger and better and more righteous than the other. Every time America has done that since 1945 we have come face to face with nationalist ardor and come away with empty hands, and a sense of powerlessness. Neither of these men have any diplomatic skills at all; they're only accustomed to bluster and berating and insulting each other at long distance and tweeting From history's point of view, I'm not optimistic. No one will feel much more secure, and most will feel a sense of powerlessness before forces which we have absolutely no control.

I may not be awfully optimistic, but I've never been a fan of brinkmanship, either. May we all find a way to tone things down and hope cooler heads prevail to keep history going for another couple of generations, even if it must be with a nuclear umbrella hovering over us on the sad, divided Korean peninsula.

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