Archive: Opinions

I've been wracking my brain for a day or two, trying to remember a not so famous quote from Alan Greenspan when he was chair of the Federal Reserve. It was in the early nineties, I think, and the tech boom was in its infancy and so-called tech stocks were leading the charge into uncharted territory for the NASDAQ stock index. The underlying economic fundamentals were solid, but Wall Street's enthusiasm was pushing the limits of rational credibility. Greenspan, most jokingly known as 'The Undertaker' in Ayn Rand's coterie of acolytes, called the stock market upward movements, "irrational, exuberance".

I'm an observer of the stock market as well as political issues and think that one is used for the other in various combinations. Thus, if you have been watching the markets, there are some interesting factoids that seem to indicate that Greenspan's homespun phrase is apt, or at least worth pondering.

I'll not go into details of what is occurring today on Wall Street, as I could be as wrong as anyone else in that regard. But the market's seen as pure numbers are at dizzying heights and setting records with the volatility of the late spring, a hazy memory. Although it appears that no one on Wall Street is on vacation, they are no doubt afraid it would be no respite if worried about the market sneezing. Maybe it's seeing thousands of students coming back to campus without a vulnerable care in he world. "What me worry?"

What I am looking at is where the market optimism is being apparently contradicted by real-time news. I guess I'm trying my damnedest to see the positive, but clawing my way through the news that is not politically oriented is an exercise that stimulates my pessimism. Maybe I'm worrying too much if I'm the only one who is worried, not about November necessarily, but today. Or are there a lot of quiet nail biters out there, perhaps a new silent majority?

So the negative first, while I promise and save some positive and good news for the conclusion of this week's 'Thoughts'.

A letter to Wired Magazine in reference to their story entitled "This country is reopening. I'm still in lockdown". A woman wrote to Wired Magazine the following: "After reading this my heart fractured.There is a whole class of people who haven't been heard or seen because they don't have financial means. My daughter has a rare and painful genetic mutation. When COVID hit her husband lost his job. Soon I won't be able to help them out with rent anymore. The thought of my daughter, trying to look after herself and her husband is more than a mother can bear."

Well, my heart fractured reading that when I realized that this story may be, in essence, the story of silent thousands, still dealing with the tsunami that we call a pandemic. Pass laws to prevent evictions, print more stimulus checks, pass myriad 'now hiring signs' on my grateful way to my part time essential job. There are uncounted thousands whose lives resemble Humpty Dumpty's calamity. I'll return to this in a moment.

The CFO of Waste Management Inc. Reports, the weight of residential waste has increased 15% to 25% since the beginning of the pandemic and the resulting lockdown this year. We may not be in lockdown now, but take a look at the residential garbage and recycling piles outside our homes ready for pickup to confirm these numbers.

That financial officer also pointed out that commercial and industrial waste had dropped double digits in volume. The Houston-based company has 18 million residential customers in the US and Canada, and the increase in residential trash slash waste means increased trips by their trucks, thus higher expenses. If you have trash and recyclables to deal with, expect prices to rise very soon, if you haven't already seen a recent bill for disposal.

More worries: the White House wants to decrease the 'payroll tax' that we and our employers pay. Too bad the press releases don't tell you the actual name of the payroll tax: it's Social Security and Medicare, already on the loops financially as the boomers stoop to the trough. The pandemic has now, prior to any payroll changes, put social security in a position to pay benefits that exceed its income for the first time in 40 years. The current fiscal crisis could substantially boost costs and accelerate depletion of the trust funds: "additional claims for retirement disability and survivor's benefits might increase costs".

As it stands now, before Mnuchin gets his hands in the money pile, Social Security's reserves are now expected to be depleted by 2035, which will require an automatic reduction in benefits unless Congress steps in. Right: Remember Monyhan's 'third rail'?

More news from the dark side... FBI gun sales statistics will stun you. In July alone the Bureau conducted 3.6 million background checks for gun permits, the third highest on record. This probably translates to 1.8 million gun sales in July, a 122% increase over July, 2019. How many gun sales this year? Through July 12.1 million guns sold.

Is this a response to civil unrest? Is this a growing fear that police will not protect citizens? This is not NRA propaganda. It's, again, just the facts, and you may interpret them as you will, with your own spin. According to the National Shooting Sports Foundation, a survey of gun retailers revealed that sales to blacks are up 58%. I don't know what this means, except that I sense and smell the word fear. And that crosses all racial and cultural lines, doesn't it?

Among these bits of fear and loathing. I spotted an article by Patty Waldmeir on the Financial Times, editorial page headlines "The silver lining of addiction recovery online". She speaks of a 39 year old welder and mother of five in Ohio who called the pandemic a blessing in disguise for many recovering addicts. Why? The number of online 12 step programs has exploded, evidenced by a quick Google search of Alcoholics Anonymous, Narcotics Anonymous, and other 12 step programs. The problem of getting to a meeting, looking for childcare, timing, and just plain excuse making has disappeared with the national familiarity and acceptance of Zoom, not just for work before recovery comradery, so essential to recovery from addiction. Gambling, alcohol opioids, food, sex, all the 12 step meetings are now a key tap away, even with kids at home or fear of the associated shame that gnaws at the former reluctance to walk into a room and admit to powerlessness. I myself did that 20 years ago this week.

Basically the pandemic has given hope to millions more who had not attended meetings by granting instant 24/7 online help through the global network of recovery meetings.

And the person who wrote the letter to Wired that began this column? Here's my thought: that person might be next door, or at least down the street from you. I think that we would have a very hard time denying that simple statistical assumptions would determine that the pain, sometimes supra-human pain associated with isolation and loneliness, is in your neighborhood and mine quietly doing the stoic thing, and afraid or ashamed to reach out. Here's your chance, friends.

Someone, I guarantee you, needs you right now. Or, if you are the human in pain, fear, or worse, you both can reach out. If you need help rise above the pain and ask. If you are 'okay', then think about that person who may not be 'okay'. This is our chance to shine, is it not? With all the irrational exuberance as even gyms and schools open hesitantly, the detritus of human pain is still around us and needs our open eyes, open ears, and open hearts. This month and the remaining time in this horrific 2020 may be our opportunity to rise above acrimony, petty politics, and empty platitudes and shine as humans, one kind act at a time.

And I am becoming very positive that this is a time of transition, of change, and of lessons, both for me and maybe society too. Painful lessons that bring me a new understanding of what it means to be human. And the best lesson of all, that I hope you will understand, is that happiness appears to be an inside job. And you can give as much happiness as you have, because there's no limit to giving. The supply is infinite. As Abraham Lincoln once said, "Most folks are as happy as they make up their minds to be." So take care of each other. Thanks for listening.